Tuesday, September 27, 2005

Designing Energy Descent Pathways: One community's attempt at designing a prosperous way down from the peak.

Designing Energy Descent Pathways: One community's attempt at designing a prosperous way down from the peak. | EnergyBulletin.net | Energy and Peak Oil News

Reaching the Peak

There is an emerging consensus now that we are either very close to or have passed the peak in world oil production. As someone who has been involved in environmental issues for 16 years, and permaculture for 13 years, I have to ask myself how I didn’t see this one coming. Its implications are profound. No longer is it in any way an appropriate response to say ‘we need to recycle’, when the process of recycling require transporting recyclable waste long distances. We have to look much deeper at the whole waste question. An excellent recent report by Tim Lang and Jules Pretty “Farm Costs and Food Miles: An Assessment of the Full Cost of the UK Weekly Food Basket”, argued that food could only be called sustainable when it is grown and consumed within a 20 mile radius. We have to build a local food economy from an almost totally non-existent base. There has been no time in history when anything less than 70% of the population were involved in some way in the production of food. Nowadays it is more like 6% (in Ireland), and of those, a high proportion would have lost much of that knowledge. ‘Green’ building that relies on imported ‘ecological’ materials from Germany or Denmark will no longer be viable, leading to our needing to rethink how we will actually construct energy efficient shelter in a lower energy near future. We are looking at the need for a process of localisation, of looking at what is essential to our lives (food, warmth, shelter, water) and rebuilding the local economy in such a way that it is actually able to supply these. The process of dismantling our diverse and complex local economics over the last 50-60 years was a disastrous one – it was easy to do but incredibly hard to rebuild.

The recent award winning film ‘The End of Suburbia’ is a very sobering look at the whole peak oil issue. It makes it very clear that the problem is of a scale that is almost unimaginable, and that the solutions are really not in place at all, or indeed anywhere near being so. We are so dependent on oil for every aspect of our lives, that its gradual (or rapid, depending on who you listen to…) but steady disappearance from our lives will force us to redesign our communities and our own lives. We need to relearn the skills that sustained our ancestors; crafts, local medicines, the great art of growing food. This is a big challenge. This is THE big challenge.


Becoming Aware

My introduction to all this came through meeting Dr Colin Campbell. He lives in Ballydehob in West Cork, and sets up and runs the Association for the Study of Peak Oil. He worked in the oil industry for over 30 years, and since his retirement has devoted himself to researching the real picture in terms of oil availability, how much is left, where it is and so on. It is Colin who has really brought the awareness of Peak Oil to the world’s attention, untiringly travelling the world, lecturing governments, investment bankers, energy experts, telling them all the same thing, we are about to peak, and you need to re-evaluate what you are doing, because it is going to change everything.

Last September Colin came into Kinsale FEC to talk to my second year permaculture students, who had seen The End of Suburbia the previous day. Colin gave them an introduction to petroleum geology, how and where oil forms, and then went on to look how much is left and where it is. His presentation was so thorough and well researched that his findings were compelling. It was a real eye opener, for me and for the students. I met a friend the following week who said “what did you do to your students last week, they all looked ill for the rest of the week!”.


First Steps

This led on to our planning of the Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan project. The term energy descent was originally used by ecologist Howard T Odum in his book ‘A Prosperous Way Down ’, and was picked up and used by David Holmgren in his seminal ‘Permaculture, pathways and principles beyond sustainability’. It refers to the time beyond the peak, the downward trend in energy availability. Holmgren makes the point that we need to plan for this descent, rather than simply allowing it to unfold in a series of random and chaotic events. This point is also made by Richard Heinberg in his book ‘Powerdown - options and actions for a post-carbon future’, where he calls for a planned descent, an international response to Peak Oil on the same scale as a wartime mobilisation, to begin building a low energy future.

Another inspiration for me around that time was a talk I went to by a woman from a community organisation in the north of Ireland who was from a very dynamic community development group for a small town in decline. Farming was dying they felt, and they wanted a new direction for the town with a sustainability focus. What they did was bring in a sustainability ‘expert’ who told them that they needed to develop ‘eco-tourism’, and that that would be a sustainable replacement for farming. I was horrified by this; it seemed to me to be taking all the community’s eggs out of one basket and just putting them all into another. Also, all the ideas had come from the ‘expert’ rather than the community itself. I thought that actually a lot more would have been achieved by running a permaculture design course for the people in the village and letting the ideas come from them.

As the students and myself started looking around at the books available on the subject was that what was lacking was examples of towns who had actually started to look at this issue. Had anyone actually started to design pathways down from the peak for a settlement anywhere in the world? Cuba is an often cited example, but we have to remember that Cuba was forced to localise by circumstance (the Russian oil that had underpinned the country until that point being no longer available), and a friend who visited there recently expressed a feeling that there was no great enthusiasm for it among many people. What we wanted was to try and create an example (as we were unable to find one in practice) of a town looking at what Peak Oil will actually mean to them, and to vision how they want a low-energy future to be. As there was no pathway for this in place, we had to make one up.


Starting from Scratch

The first thing we did was to visit a number of good permaculture/organic projects in the West Cork area for ideas and inspiration, but also to talk to their proprietors about what they saw as being practical responses to energy descent that they felt that they felt were tried and tested. That proved to be very interesting, and gave us some useful insights. We heard about the practical realities of making a living growing organic vegetables for local markets and how a changing economy would make that more viable. We heard about the realities of living off the grid, and the financial implications of doing so. We saw the practicalities of the people trying to put the first building blocks in place, and their visions for how things might change. We began to envisage a 3-4 year process of community consultation, education and awareness-raising, combined with practical implementation of projects on the ground and the formulation of a timetables plan for making this transition. This plan became christened the Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan. The idea was that this year’s second year students produce the first draft, which is then put out to the community for consultation, and then the following year’s students revise the document and update it. We felt that this would take about 3 years to produce something nearing a definitive document, although there would always need to be space allowed for the document to adapt to developments, to be ‘tweaked’.

We had brainstorms on each of the different areas we identified for the Action Plan. These were Food, Youth and Community, Education, Housing, Economy and Livelihoods, Health, Tourism, Transport, Waste, Energy and Marine Resources. Future years may add new categories to this, but it seemed like a good starting list. We made Mind Maps of the issues raised and possible solutions to them. We also invited speakers into the class who had a lot of knowledge on some of these topics.


Kinsale 2021

On Saturday February 12th 2005 we held an event in Kinsale called “Kinsale in 2021 - Towards a Prosperous, Sustainable Future Together”, which took place at Kinsale Town Hall. The event was presented as a ‘community think-tank’ in order to hear the community’s ideas about how energy descent would affect the community and what might be done about it. Before the event we sent personal invitations to the people in Kinsale that we had identified as being the movers and shakers in the town, drawn from the sectors identified above. We also left the event open to the public and put posters up around the town. From the 60 people invited, about 35 turned up on the day. The event itself was opened by the Mayor of Kinsale, Mr Charles Henderson, who spoke of the importance of energy as an issue and how it affects all aspects of our lives and our economy. This was followed by a screening of ‘The End of Suburbia’.

After the film, Thomas Riedmuller, who teaches Community Leadership at Kinsale FEC, introduced the concept of Open Space Technology as a tool for facilitating such events. Open Space is based on the idea that the most productive discussion and idea sharing at any event happens during the tea breaks. Open Space is, in essence, a long tea break, where groups are formed to discuss certain issues, and everyone is free to move between discussion groups, based on the principal ‘where you are is where you are meant to be’, and ‘if you feel you need to be somewhere else, go there’. Those assembled took to the Open Space model with great enthusiasm, and it was extremely productive. People were invited to identify the specific problems and issues that the film raised for them. These were then recorded on large sheets of paper and pinned up on the wall. These were then collated into subject areas, and each of these became the basis for a discussion group. The groups covered the following subjects, Food, Rebuilding Communities, Youth Group/Education, Business & Technology, Tourism and renewable energy.

The groups came up with a wealth of ideas and possibilities that were then fed back to the rest of the participants afterwards. The feedback after the day was very good. We learnt a few lessons from the event that would be helpful for people doing it again. Firstly, a lot of people sent apologies that they would have liked to come, but they were just too busy to give up a whole day. We found it difficult to come up with another model though, because for us it worked very well showing the film and then having the discussions straight away while the feeling of urgency that the film engenders is still fresh in their minds. We were able, thanks to the generosity of many cafes and restaurants in Kinsale who sponsored the event, to put on a sumptuous spread for lunch, which people loved, and which kept the energy of the event up. We wondered if it might have been good to have had a few screenings of the film in the community first, so some people could have seen it in advance one evening, and so wouldn’t have had to give up so much of their time to attend the discussion. We found Open Space an excellent tool for getting people talking in a relaxed and informal way.


The Action Plan

After the event we collated the information that had come in from the day and pairs of students selected different subject areas. I supplied a wealth of reading material for background research, and the students did a lot of internet research of useful ideas and examples from around the world. The final result is the ‘Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan – Version.1. 2005’ which is our first attempt at a year-by-year plan for the town. Each section of the report begins with a section called ‘The Present’. This attempts to succinctly summarise what is the problem now, in 2005, with regards to the subject in question. This is followed by The Vision, which is written in such a way as to give the reader an idea of how Kinsale could be, if all the recommendations up to that point had been implemented. Part of the challenge with permaculture I feel is how we convey to people the concept that a lower energy future could be preferable, more fulfilling and more abundant and more fulfilling than the present. This section aims to do that, so that people can see in their minds eyes what it would look like.

This is then followed by a list of suggestions and recommendations, in chronological order. These are meant to be ambitious but also achievable, given a good deal of ambition and support. Each section is then rounded off with a collection of resources and internet links. The last section of the Action Plan is a proposal for a Kinsale Sustainability Centre. The idea is that the Centre would be formed with the brief of implementing the Action Plan, and would create 5 posts for students at the end of their second year. They would, in effect, be Community Permaculture Field Workers, out in the town helping the community to put in place the steps of the Action Plan. The Sustainability Centre would act as a focus for the work, running courses and training, but also providing a service, providing initiatives such as an urban market garden.


Next Steps

Next years second years will take the Plan as it is and develop it further. The idea is to set up a series of Think Tank events, like the Kinsale 2021 day, but which are more specific to different areas of the Plan, for example one on health, where they invite all the people in Kinsale working in the field, and another on education, inviting teachers, parents and other people with an involvement. These events would be based around what has already been proposed in the Plan, but getting feedback as to how practical our suggestions are. These events will serve a dual purpose, firstly they’ll act as an essential community sounding board for the Plan’s ideas, and secondly they open doors into the community for the project, all kinds of new practical projects are proposed and contacts made. They also serve to bring this work to the community, rather than expecting it to come to us, or sitting around thinking “why is no-one doing anything”. The great thing with being based in a college doing this work is that you can call on 30 pairs of hands if the feeing is to go and build a garden somewhere. 30 pairs of hands get a lot done!


Final Thoughts

These are early days for this project. We have had no models to work from and have had to invent this process as we go along. It has not been conducted by professionals or by a respected research organisation. It has had no external funding other than the ability to use the college facilities. It is a student project, and we make no claims for it being a complete and thorough document.

What it is though is a very important and far-reaching piece of work. It does something that I think is very bold and powerful. It invites people to look beyond where we are now, and beyond simply allowing events to unravel, and to look towards where they would like to be. It allows people to dream, but not in a woolly ungrounded way. It is rooted in practicality, looking at the building block, we can’t put the second one in place before the first one. In the same way that in permaculture design we aim to make our mistakes on paper first so as to avoid costly mistakes in the landscape, with Energy Descent Action Plans we aim to clarify a step-by-step way down, so as to best focus our energies.

I also think it is important to be realistic. For example, I don’t feel it is realistic to imagine that anything approaching a majority of the population will start growing food without a massive crisis to force them into doing so. However, what we can do is start putting in place the infrastructure that will be needed (seed saving clubs, excluding a certain proportion of land in urban areas from development, preserving skills and knowledge, teaching skills to younger people, creating community compost schemes so we have a resource of compost for growers). When people say “but where will our fruit come from?”, we can say “from the 5 acre orchard over there that we planted 7 years ago”. We can begin to build systems around people. At the same time we need to engage them as much as possible, and see our work as being of service. I feel this is fascinating work and should be begun in every settlement. It is big picture thinking, town-scale permaculture, and needs to be rolled out across the country as a matter of great urgency.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Editorial Notes ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Rob Hopkins is a permaculture teacher and designer, who founded The Hollies Centre for Practical Sustainability in Ireland and developed the Practical Sustainability course at Kinsale Further Education College in Ireland, Europe's first 2 year full-time permaculture course. Since developing the Energy Descent Action Plan approach he has moved to Devon, Uk, where he is now researching a PhD at Plymouth University looking at this approach, refining it further into an approach that can be done anywhere. He will shortly begin this process for the town on Totnes in Devon. He can be contacted at robjhopkins-at-gmail.com. (replace -at- with @ to email)

Copies of the Kinsale 2021 document can be bought from Kinsale FEC, contact kinsalefurthered-at-eircom.net for full details.

This article originally appeared in Permaculture Magazine No. 45, avaiable at www.permaculture.co.uk

Wednesday, September 14, 2005

Urban Age - Creating the Post-Carbon City

Urban Age - Creating the Post-Carbon City

By David Room

Many cities have become obsessed with growth. Some find themselves using new
development to finance the services required for previous development. Such
patterns rely on ready access to cheap energy supplies. These supplies,
however, are now coming into question in a way that is far more serious than
the energy shocks of the 1970s; geology as opposed to geopolitics is driving
a process that heralds permanent energy scarcity. If energy realists are
right, cities will need to refocus drastically away from energy-intensive
development towards using significantly less energy, not only in the built
environment, but in the whole city infrastructure.
A Stressed Biosphere

Energy-subsidized human activity is causing severe biosphere destruction
that threatens life on the planet, human and other. Headlines regularly
highlight rapid species extinction, fisheries depletion and other disturbing
trends. Most troubling, there is now widespread scientific agreement that
human-induced global warming, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, is
causing increasingly harmful climate disruption. Atmospheric greenhouse
gases are at levels 30 percent higher than Earth has experienced during the
last 400,000 years and they continue to rise inexorably. There are already
clear signs of what may become uncontrollable, irreparable impacts.
Civilization is clearly headed in the wrong direction, and urgent and
dramatic action is needed.

Although human activity has always tended to disrupt ecosystems, climate and
other environmental problems have been exacerbated in the last century.
Soon, for the first time, more people will live in cities than rural areas.
City dwellers lead relatively energy intensive lives, even those that live
in poverty. As a result, energy consumption rises with our explosive urban
population growth. Cheap oil and natural gas have been the primary enablers
of the population increase and the energy-intensive urban lifestyle.
However, after one hundred and fifty years of extraordinary growth, these
fuel sources are reaching their limits.
Oil and Gas Peak

Oil and gas do not sit in underground caverns: they are trapped in gaps in
certain types of rocks. This is a critical point, because it means that oil
and gas fields do not simply drain out as from a tank, but generally follow
a bell-shaped pattern of rising to a peak of production and then falling
away. The U.S. peaked in 1970. Peak oil makes nonsense of recent claims by
British Petroleum that we have enough oil for forty years. Of course, oil
will still be pumping in a hundred and forty years-just not very much.

Alarm bells sounded in the 1970s with various oil and gas shocks, and there
was talk of "running out." But the urgency was subsequently quelled by
significant discoveries in Alaska and the North Sea; extraction was a matter
of engineering-very difficult, but possible. Times are different now. Unlike
the 1970s, we have no new huge provinces have been discovered-in fact, the
North Sea was the last such find. Worse still, following a declining trend,
in 2003 for the first time in many years no major fields were discovered,
and the world oil production rate is now six times the current discovery
rate. To underline how different times are now, Matthew Simmons, chairman of
the world's largest private energy bank and writer of a forthcoming book on
Saudi oil, believes that Saudi Arabia-the world's largest oil exporter-has
reached a production plateau and that decline is imminent. The whole Middle
East may also be on a plateau.

When global oil peak will occur is debatable, and can only be known for
certain in retrospect. Princeton University geologist Kenneth Deffeyes and
others believe that we have passed the peak for conventional oil that is
easily and economically extractable using known techniques. Colin Campbell
of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas and, Ali Samsam
Bakhtiari of the National Iranian Oil Company, using separate calculations,
both predict that the peak will occur in 2006 for all oil, including
unconventional. For oil and natural gas together, the Association predicts a
peak of 2011. Many other geologists predict peak oil within a decade. The
glaring exception is the U.S. Geological Survey, which puts peak in mid
century. Surely, high oil pricing, recent write-downs of oil reserves by
Shell and others, record natural gas pricing and resource conflicts
foreshadow serious issues with world energy supply. Prudence requires that
those involved in urban planning begin considering the possibility that oil
is peaking now, since revamping infrastructure takes decades.
Impetus for change

The imminent peaking of global oil and gas production could be the catalyst
for the positive transformation of industrial society, and perhaps avert
catastrophic climate change. It could also be disastrous. Essential systems
such as food, electricity, health care and transportation that form the
foundation of industrial civilization depend on unfettered access to cheap
oil and natural gas. Industrial agriculture relies upon natural gas-derived
fertilizers, oil-based pesticides, oil-intensive transport and plastic
packaging. In fact, fuel accounts for virtually 100% of the work that is
done in industrial society

Once supply begins to drop and is no longer able to meet demand, less work
will be done-which means less economic activity. Alternative energies,
conservation and new energy carriers such as hydrogen will undoubtedly play
a role in future energy systems, yet collectively they will not be enough to
preserve industrial society as we know it. A largely positive outcome could
result from extraordinary planning, action and enduring behavior change.
Cities must prepare for a serious decrease in net energy availability in
their twenty year time horizon or else accept "the cyanide solution of much
more coal and nuclear" says Julian Darley, author of High Noon for Natural
Gas.
The burden of cities

Most future initiatives to stave off an energy meltdown will be led from the
local level-where most energy consumption actually occurs. Every city and
community will have different portfolios of solutions tailored to their
circumstances and culture. Solutions for Toronto's suburbs will be different
from those of Johannesburg. Cities-backed by governments providing
appropriate support through ending fossil fuel subsidies, developing
renewables and considering carbon taxes-must begin experiments to discover
what works and what does not in a given locale.

This knowledge must be gained before the coming energy crisis-experiments
that do not work now may be considered useful information. If experiments
fail in crisis conditions, people are likely to suffer grievously. Cuba is a
salutary example of a country that had to face a sudden and near total
collapse in both its oil supply and most of its external economic system.
Its experiences will likely prove instructive as the rest of the world
grapples with energy scarcity. To save precious time and resources,
communities and cities will need to learn from existing models, share
experiments, outcomes and lessons learned; the term sister city will soon
have a whole new meaning.

Cities need to prepare themselves to do less materially with much less
energy and fewer natural resources, with the ultimate goal of sustainable
living largely within the confines of their bioregion. "We need to reinvent
the city," says Richard Heinberg, author of The Party's Over and Powerdown.
"To not do so will be suicide." One famous example of energy and natural
resource collapse occurred on Easter Island, whose complex society unraveled
into cannibalism.
Key building blocks of the solution

Relocalization is the process by which communities localize their economies
and essential systems, such as food and energy production, water, monetary,
governance and media. To even out local difficulties relocalization will
require some degree of regional integration. Cities need to support and
collaborate with community groups on relocalization experiments, since
cities are the information hubs and the final destination of most production
and resources. The benefit will be adaptable communities and cities that
collectively operate within the means of their bioregion, using locally
produced food and fuel. As James Howard Kunstler, the author of The
Geography of Nowhere, puts it, "the 3,000 mile Caesar salad will be much
less palatable when oil is $100 a barrel." Many regions will also have to
experiment with local currencies, as there may be great difficulties with
present financial systems.

"The city is radically out of sync with healthy life systems on earth, and
is functioning in nearly complete disregard of its long-term sustenance,"
says Richard Register of Eco City Builders. "We need to move beyond New
Urbanism to rebuild cities for people instead of cars and regain a human
balance with nature." To roll back sprawl, Register suggests ecological city
design as the framework for rebuilding cities around high density, mixed use
centers with pedestrian plazas, solar greenhouses, rooftop gardens,
ecologically informed architecture and natural features like creeks. In
Register's "eco-city" concept, centers are interspersed with natural open
space, parks, and farming, linking to other city centers and regional
centers via appropriate transit.

Sound municipal governance for the transition into the post-carbon age
requires:

* Nimble government that rapidly reconfigures for energy scarcity
* Active support for relocalization, worker-owned cooperatives,
locally-owned businesses and ecological city design
* Innovative municipal tools to affect land and energy use such as
zoning ordinances, transfer development rights, tenancy agreements and
community benefit agreements
* A contingency plan that addresses how essential systems will work with
less energy
* Pressure on national leaders for support of local efforts, including
demands for a global carbon tax to support local initiatives and experiments


At first, some of these suggestions will meet great resistance. As the
evidence mounts, it will become easier to make the case for serious change.
Because so much time has been wasted since the 1970s oil shocks were
shrugged off, it is essential that cities begin preparations now. "The
starting is very important," says Jaime Lerner, President of the
International Union of Architects, former mayor of Curitiba, Brazil, and the
driving force behind that city's emergence as the world's most ecological
city. "If you wait until you have all the answers, you will never start."

David Room is Communications Director of the Post Carbon Institute. He has
broad experience in environmental affairs, energy, and the use of technology
for communications and collaboration. He has a Masters in Engineering
Economic Systems and a B.S. in Electrical Engineering from Stanford
University. He can be reached at dave@postcarbon.org.

Urban Age - Creating the Post-Carbon City

Urban Age - Creating the Post-Carbon City

By David Room

Many cities have become obsessed with growth. Some find themselves using new
development to finance the services required for previous development. Such
patterns rely on ready access to cheap energy supplies. These supplies,
however, are now coming into question in a way that is far more serious than
the energy shocks of the 1970s; geology as opposed to geopolitics is driving
a process that heralds permanent energy scarcity. If energy realists are
right, cities will need to refocus drastically away from energy-intensive
development towards using significantly less energy, not only in the built
environment, but in the whole city infrastructure.
A Stressed Biosphere

Energy-subsidized human activity is causing severe biosphere destruction
that threatens life on the planet, human and other. Headlines regularly
highlight rapid species extinction, fisheries depletion and other disturbing
trends. Most troubling, there is now widespread scientific agreement that
human-induced global warming, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, is
causing increasingly harmful climate disruption. Atmospheric greenhouse
gases are at levels 30 percent higher than Earth has experienced during the
last 400,000 years and they continue to rise inexorably. There are already
clear signs of what may become uncontrollable, irreparable impacts.
Civilization is clearly headed in the wrong direction, and urgent and
dramatic action is needed.

Although human activity has always tended to disrupt ecosystems, climate and
other environmental problems have been exacerbated in the last century.
Soon, for the first time, more people will live in cities than rural areas.
City dwellers lead relatively energy intensive lives, even those that live
in poverty. As a result, energy consumption rises with our explosive urban
population growth. Cheap oil and natural gas have been the primary enablers
of the population increase and the energy-intensive urban lifestyle.
However, after one hundred and fifty years of extraordinary growth, these
fuel sources are reaching their limits.
Oil and Gas Peak

Oil and gas do not sit in underground caverns: they are trapped in gaps in
certain types of rocks. This is a critical point, because it means that oil
and gas fields do not simply drain out as from a tank, but generally follow
a bell-shaped pattern of rising to a peak of production and then falling
away. The U.S. peaked in 1970. Peak oil makes nonsense of recent claims by
British Petroleum that we have enough oil for forty years. Of course, oil
will still be pumping in a hundred and forty years-just not very much.

Alarm bells sounded in the 1970s with various oil and gas shocks, and there
was talk of "running out." But the urgency was subsequently quelled by
significant discoveries in Alaska and the North Sea; extraction was a matter
of engineering-very difficult, but possible. Times are different now. Unlike
the 1970s, we have no new huge provinces have been discovered-in fact, the
North Sea was the last such find. Worse still, following a declining trend,
in 2003 for the first time in many years no major fields were discovered,
and the world oil production rate is now six times the current discovery
rate. To underline how different times are now, Matthew Simmons, chairman of
the world's largest private energy bank and writer of a forthcoming book on
Saudi oil, believes that Saudi Arabia-the world's largest oil exporter-has
reached a production plateau and that decline is imminent. The whole Middle
East may also be on a plateau.

When global oil peak will occur is debatable, and can only be known for
certain in retrospect. Princeton University geologist Kenneth Deffeyes and
others believe that we have passed the peak for conventional oil that is
easily and economically extractable using known techniques. Colin Campbell
of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas and, Ali Samsam
Bakhtiari of the National Iranian Oil Company, using separate calculations,
both predict that the peak will occur in 2006 for all oil, including
unconventional. For oil and natural gas together, the Association predicts a
peak of 2011. Many other geologists predict peak oil within a decade. The
glaring exception is the U.S. Geological Survey, which puts peak in mid
century. Surely, high oil pricing, recent write-downs of oil reserves by
Shell and others, record natural gas pricing and resource conflicts
foreshadow serious issues with world energy supply. Prudence requires that
those involved in urban planning begin considering the possibility that oil
is peaking now, since revamping infrastructure takes decades.
Impetus for change

The imminent peaking of global oil and gas production could be the catalyst
for the positive transformation of industrial society, and perhaps avert
catastrophic climate change. It could also be disastrous. Essential systems
such as food, electricity, health care and transportation that form the
foundation of industrial civilization depend on unfettered access to cheap
oil and natural gas. Industrial agriculture relies upon natural gas-derived
fertilizers, oil-based pesticides, oil-intensive transport and plastic
packaging. In fact, fuel accounts for virtually 100% of the work that is
done in industrial society

Once supply begins to drop and is no longer able to meet demand, less work
will be done-which means less economic activity. Alternative energies,
conservation and new energy carriers such as hydrogen will undoubtedly play
a role in future energy systems, yet collectively they will not be enough to
preserve industrial society as we know it. A largely positive outcome could
result from extraordinary planning, action and enduring behavior change.
Cities must prepare for a serious decrease in net energy availability in
their twenty year time horizon or else accept "the cyanide solution of much
more coal and nuclear" says Julian Darley, author of High Noon for Natural
Gas.
The burden of cities

Most future initiatives to stave off an energy meltdown will be led from the
local level-where most energy consumption actually occurs. Every city and
community will have different portfolios of solutions tailored to their
circumstances and culture. Solutions for Toronto's suburbs will be different
from those of Johannesburg. Cities-backed by governments providing
appropriate support through ending fossil fuel subsidies, developing
renewables and considering carbon taxes-must begin experiments to discover
what works and what does not in a given locale.

This knowledge must be gained before the coming energy crisis-experiments
that do not work now may be considered useful information. If experiments
fail in crisis conditions, people are likely to suffer grievously. Cuba is a
salutary example of a country that had to face a sudden and near total
collapse in both its oil supply and most of its external economic system.
Its experiences will likely prove instructive as the rest of the world
grapples with energy scarcity. To save precious time and resources,
communities and cities will need to learn from existing models, share
experiments, outcomes and lessons learned; the term sister city will soon
have a whole new meaning.

Cities need to prepare themselves to do less materially with much less
energy and fewer natural resources, with the ultimate goal of sustainable
living largely within the confines of their bioregion. "We need to reinvent
the city," says Richard Heinberg, author of The Party's Over and Powerdown.
"To not do so will be suicide." One famous example of energy and natural
resource collapse occurred on Easter Island, whose complex society unraveled
into cannibalism.
Key building blocks of the solution

Relocalization is the process by which communities localize their economies
and essential systems, such as food and energy production, water, monetary,
governance and media. To even out local difficulties relocalization will
require some degree of regional integration. Cities need to support and
collaborate with community groups on relocalization experiments, since
cities are the information hubs and the final destination of most production
and resources. The benefit will be adaptable communities and cities that
collectively operate within the means of their bioregion, using locally
produced food and fuel. As James Howard Kunstler, the author of The
Geography of Nowhere, puts it, "the 3,000 mile Caesar salad will be much
less palatable when oil is $100 a barrel." Many regions will also have to
experiment with local currencies, as there may be great difficulties with
present financial systems.

"The city is radically out of sync with healthy life systems on earth, and
is functioning in nearly complete disregard of its long-term sustenance,"
says Richard Register of Eco City Builders. "We need to move beyond New
Urbanism to rebuild cities for people instead of cars and regain a human
balance with nature." To roll back sprawl, Register suggests ecological city
design as the framework for rebuilding cities around high density, mixed use
centers with pedestrian plazas, solar greenhouses, rooftop gardens,
ecologically informed architecture and natural features like creeks. In
Register's "eco-city" concept, centers are interspersed with natural open
space, parks, and farming, linking to other city centers and regional
centers via appropriate transit.

Sound municipal governance for the transition into the post-carbon age
requires:

* Nimble government that rapidly reconfigures for energy scarcity
* Active support for relocalization, worker-owned cooperatives,
locally-owned businesses and ecological city design
* Innovative municipal tools to affect land and energy use such as
zoning ordinances, transfer development rights, tenancy agreements and
community benefit agreements
* A contingency plan that addresses how essential systems will work with
less energy
* Pressure on national leaders for support of local efforts, including
demands for a global carbon tax to support local initiatives and experiments


At first, some of these suggestions will meet great resistance. As the
evidence mounts, it will become easier to make the case for serious change.
Because so much time has been wasted since the 1970s oil shocks were
shrugged off, it is essential that cities begin preparations now. "The
starting is very important," says Jaime Lerner, President of the
International Union of Architects, former mayor of Curitiba, Brazil, and the
driving force behind that city's emergence as the world's most ecological
city. "If you wait until you have all the answers, you will never start."

David Room is Communications Director of the Post Carbon Institute. He has
broad experience in environmental affairs, energy, and the use of technology
for communications and collaboration. He has a Masters in Engineering
Economic Systems and a B.S. in Electrical Engineering from Stanford
University. He can be reached at dave@postcarbon.org.